Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-04-06 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 39.7%

TBL: 60.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.78

TBL: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	2	1.85
1	TBL	9	0	0.41
2	PIT	18	1	1.07
2	TBL	21	0	1.42
3	PIT	6	2	1.09
3	TBL	16	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4