Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-04-06 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 51.2%
TOR: 48.8%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.63
TOR: 3.30
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.939 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | TOR |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-18 | MTL 3 - 7 TOR | TOR | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 02:21 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:38 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:20 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:54 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:05 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:32 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.6 - 3.3