Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-04-06 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.1%

TOR: 47.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.30

TOR: 3.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	0	1.02
1	TOR	9	0	0.77
2	MTL	13	1	0.68
2	TOR	23	2	1.77
3	MTL	16	1	1.13
3	TOR	11	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.8