Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-04-06 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 49.2%
TOR: 50.8%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.66
TOR: 3.25
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 27-8-4 | 0.904 SV% | 2.73 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-14-7 | 0.901 SV% | 3.32 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.955 | 0.881 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.940 | 0.895 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MTL at home vs TOR: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | MTL 3 - 1 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | TOR |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 02:21 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:38 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:20 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:54 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:05 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:32 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.7 - 3.3
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.