New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2024-04-06 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 59.0%
NJD: 41.0%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.17
NJD: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 25-12-8 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 23-18-1 | 0.885 SV% | 3.04 GAA
| Stat | OTT | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.876 | 0.881 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.915 | 0.921 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 12% • OTT at home vs NJD: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | OTT 4 - 1 NJD | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-12-09 | OTT 3 - 4 NJD | NJD | OTT |
| 2025-03-22 | NJD 2 - 3 OTT | OTT | NJD |
| 2025-01-19 | NJD 1 - 2 OTT | OTT | NJD |
| 2024-10-17 | OTT 1 - 3 NJD | NJD | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:50 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 12:36 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 16:34 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 00:33 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 11:04 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 03:37 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 14:17 | NJD | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.