Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2024-04-07 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 4 - 7 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 62.0%
DAL: 38.0%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.17
DAL: 2.79
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 28-6-6 | 0.918 SV% | 2.13 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 31-12-6 | 0.900 SV% | 2.61 GAA
| Stat | COL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.941 | 0.854 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.925 | 0.912 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | DAL 0 - 2 COL | COL | DAL |
| 2026-03-18 | COL 1 - 2 DAL | DAL | COL |
| 2026-03-06 | DAL 4 - 5 COL | COL | DAL |
| 2025-10-11 | COL 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | COL |
| 2025-05-03 | DAL 4 - 2 COL | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:59 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:11 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:17 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:38 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:25 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:45 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:10 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:15 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:15 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:12 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:51 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 4 - 7 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8
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