Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-04-08 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 58.6%
PIT: 41.4%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.45
PIT: 3.23
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-14-7 | 0.901 SV% | 3.32 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 22-16-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA
| Stat | TOR | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.881 | 0.872 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.862 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TOR at home vs PIT: 5-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | TOR 6 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-11-29 | PIT 2 - 7 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-03 | TOR 4 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-02 | PIT 5 - 6 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2024-12-07 | PIT 5 - 2 TOR | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:06 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:36 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 01:22 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 13:38 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 01:30 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.4 - 3.2
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.