Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2024-04-09 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 60.3%
WSH: 39.7%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.33
WSH: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | DET | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.898 | 0.900 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs WSH: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | DET 3 - 4 WSH | WSH | DET |
| 2025-12-21 | DET 3 - 2 WSH | DET | DET |
| 2025-12-20 | WSH 2 - 5 DET | DET | WSH |
| 2025-03-18 | WSH 4 - 1 DET | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-07 | WSH 5 - 2 DET | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 17:47 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 19:52 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:58 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.3 - 2.8