Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-04-09 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 58.4%

TOR: 41.6%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.05

TOR: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	6	0	0.36
1	TOR	10	0	0.42
2	NJD	13	2	0.92
2	TOR	20	2	2.06
3	NJD	13	0	0.41
3	TOR	20	2	1.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3