Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2024-04-09 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 50.8%
CGY: 49.2%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.65
CGY: 3.20
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | SJS | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.874 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.938 | 0.896 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SJS at home vs CGY: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | SJS | ||
| 2026-01-31 | CGY 3 - 2 SJS | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-12-16 | SJS 6 - 3 CGY | SJS | SJS |
| 2025-11-13 | CGY 2 - 0 SJS | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-04-13 | CGY 5 - 2 SJS | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:22 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 02:22 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 05:35 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 14:51 | SJS | Goal |
| 4 | 02:58 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
Expected: 2.6 - 3.2