Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-04-11 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 63.9%
WSH: 36.1%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.85
WSH: 2.71
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | BUF | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • BUF at home vs WSH: 4-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | BUF 4 - 3 WSH | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-30 | WSH 5 - 8 BUF | BUF | WSH |
| 2025-01-06 | BUF 4 - 3 WSH | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-14 | WSH 4 - 2 BUF | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-04-11 | BUF 4 - 2 WSH | BUF | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 12:37 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 14:36 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 09:46 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 17:43 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:00 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 63.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.8 - 2.7