New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-04-11 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 61.9%
NJD: 38.1%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.51
NJD: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
| Stat | TOR | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.899 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 1.000 | 0.897 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • TOR at home vs NJD: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | TOR 4 - 0 NJD | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-21 | TOR 2 - 5 NJD | NJD | TOR |
| 2025-01-16 | TOR 4 - 3 NJD | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-12-10 | NJD 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NJD |
| 2024-10-10 | NJD 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:18 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 00:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 06:08 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 07:57 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 12:37 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 07:59 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:16 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:48 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 11:03 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 15:13 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:46 | NJD | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 6 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 3.5 - 2.7