Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-04-13 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 60.5%
TBL: 39.5%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.21
TBL: 3.13
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | WSH | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.800 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | WSH 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3 - 2 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-14 | WSH 3 - 2 TBL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-01 | WSH 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2024-11-27 | TBL 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:56 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 13:06 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 14:00 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 16:24 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 08:29 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 16:46 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.2 - 3.1