Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-04-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

OTT: 67.2%

MTL: 32.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.64

MTL: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	0.95
1	MTL	15	2	1.29
2	OTT	17	1	1.41
2	MTL	8	1	0.72
3	OTT	27	1	1.71
3	MTL	8	0	0.36
4	OTT	4	0	0.34
4	MTL	4	0	0.46
5	OTT	3	1	1.03
5	MTL	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8