Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-04-13 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 65.5%
DET: 34.5%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.46
DET: 2.68
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 29-21-4 | 0.903 SV% | 2.67 GAA
| Stat | TOR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.896 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.951 | 0.968 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | TOR 1 - 2 DET | DET | TOR |
| 2025-12-28 | DET 3 - 2 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-13 | TOR 2 - 3 DET | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-11 | DET 6 - 3 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-17 | TOR 4 - 3 DET | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:35 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 10:02 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 13:39 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 17:37 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 19:41 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 09:04 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 10:23 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 17:22 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 00:41 | DET | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.5 - 2.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.