Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-04-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 65.3%

DET: 34.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.97

DET: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	10	0	0.38
1	DET	16	0	0.89
2	TOR	18	2	1.46
2	DET	7	0	0.46
3	TOR	22	1	1.82
3	DET	13	1	0.84
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	DET	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 4.0 - 2.9