Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-04-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 51.5%

BUF: 48.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.23

BUF: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	01:26	BUF	Goal
2	02:27	TBL	Goal
2	05:08	BUF	Goal
2	16:13	BUF	Goal
3	09:39	BUF	Goal
3	09:54	BUF	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9