Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-04-16 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 56.2%
DET: 43.8%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.75
DET: 3.10
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | MTL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.968 | 0.875 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs DET: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | MTL 0 - 4 DET | DET | MTL |
| 2025-10-09 | DET 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | DET |
| 2025-04-08 | MTL 4 - 1 DET | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-01-23 | DET 4 - 2 MTL | DET | DET |
| 2024-12-21 | MTL 5 - 1 DET | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:32 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 18:29 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:17 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:09 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:45 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:31 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:46 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:55 | MTL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 2.7 - 3.1