Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-04-16 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 67.3%

WSH: 32.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.22

WSH: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs WSH: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	9	0	0.37
1	WSH	12	0	0.61
2	PHI	15	0	0.54
2	WSH	9	0	0.35
3	PHI	19	0	0.68
3	WSH	8	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6