Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-04-17 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NYI: 53.9%

PIT: 46.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.28

PIT: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYI at home vs PIT: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	18	0	1.35
1	PIT	23	0	0.91
2	NYI	18	0	1.35
2	PIT	15	1	1.27
3	NYI	12	1	1.02
3	PIT	21	1	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2