Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-04-17 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

TBL: 63.3%

TOR: 36.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.65

TOR: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 7.6

Over 5.5: 75%

Over 6.5: 64%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TBL
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	03:58	TBL	Goal
1	06:14	TBL	Goal
1	13:18	TBL	Goal
2	06:37	TBL	Goal
2	17:05	TBL	Goal
2	17:57	TBL	Goal
3	11:27	TBL	Goal
3	14:02	TBL	Goal
3	16:20	TBL	Goal
3	19:25	TBL	Goal

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9