Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-04-17 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

TBL: 69.7%

TOR: 30.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.59

TOR: 3.69

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.97
1	TOR	21	0	1.48
2	TBL	18	0	1.66
2	TOR	13	2	0.99
3	TBL	16	3	1.90
3	TOR	16	0	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 3.7