Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-04-23 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 47.6%

TBL: 52.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.26

TBL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	19	1	1.77
1	TBL	8	0	0.26
2	FLA	20	1	1.71
2	TBL	17	2	1.75
3	FLA	12	0	0.69
3	TBL	11	1	0.89
4	FLA	4	1	0.36
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2