Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-04-27 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TBL: 53.6%

FLA: 46.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.00

FLA: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 37%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	22	1	1.40
1	FLA	8	0	0.33
2	TBL	13	0	0.70
2	FLA	19	2	1.88
3	TBL	13	0	0.91
3	FLA	11	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0