Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-04-20 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 48.3%

TOR: 51.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.93

TOR: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	20	1	1.55
1	TOR	15	1	1.02
2	BOS	10	0	0.54
2	TOR	20	0	1.32
3	BOS	4	1	0.81
3	TOR	18	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4