Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2024-04-22 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 53.3%
TOR: 46.7%
Expected Goals
BOS: 2.70
TOR: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | BOS | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.903 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.889 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.909 | — |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | BOS 5 - 3 TOR | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-11-08 | TOR 3 - 5 BOS | BOS | TOR |
| 2025-02-25 | BOS 4 - 5 TOR | TOR | BOS |
| 2025-01-04 | TOR 6 - 4 BOS | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-11-05 | TOR 4 - 0 BOS | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:18 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 10:32 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 19:52 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 18:26 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 12:06 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.7 - 3.1