Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-04-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 54.2%

BOS: 45.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.29

BOS: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.52
1	BOS	15	0	1.05
2	TOR	17	1	0.81
2	BOS	17	0	0.57
3	TOR	15	0	1.03
3	BOS	8	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.4