Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-04-27 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 60.8%
BOS: 39.2%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.91
BOS: 2.82
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | TOR | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.889 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.909 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | BOS 5 - 3 TOR | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-11-08 | TOR 3 - 5 BOS | BOS | TOR |
| 2025-02-25 | BOS 4 - 5 TOR | TOR | BOS |
| 2025-01-04 | TOR 6 - 4 BOS | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-11-05 | TOR 4 - 0 BOS | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:09 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 08:20 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 19:18 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 05:43 | BOS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Boston Bruins
Expected: 2.9 - 2.8