Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-04-30 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BOS: 41.1%

TOR: 58.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.80

TOR: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	4	0	0.27
1	TOR	20	0	0.66
2	BOS	14	0	0.66
2	TOR	15	1	1.28
3	BOS	20	1	1.40
3	TOR	10	0	0.50
4	BOS	6	0	0.16
4	TOR	4	1	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3