Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-05-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TOR: 61.8%

BOS: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.08

BOS: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.74
1	BOS	8	0	0.18
2	TOR	11	1	0.68
2	BOS	15	2	1.40
3	TOR	13	3	2.13
3	BOS	18	0	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7