Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-05-04 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BOS: 50.5%

TOR: 49.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.14

TOR: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	16	0	0.45
1	TOR	14	0	0.45
2	BOS	12	1	0.78
2	TOR	16	0	0.91
3	BOS	15	0	0.76
3	TOR	9	0	0.48
4	BOS	4	0	0.48
4	TOR	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4