New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-04-26 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 1 - 3 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 51.3%
NYR: 48.7%
Expected Goals
WSH: 2.13
NYR: 3.25
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 32%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | WSH | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.700 | 0.906 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs NYR: 5-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | WSH 6 - 3 NYR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-12-23 | WSH 3 - 7 NYR | NYR | WSH |
| 2025-10-12 | NYR 0 - 1 WSH | WSH | NYR |
| 2025-03-05 | NYR 2 - 3 WSH | WSH | NYR |
| 2025-01-04 | WSH 7 - 4 NYR | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:34 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 06:08 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 08:08 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 15:22 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.4
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 1 - 3 New York Rangers
Expected: 2.1 - 3.2