Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-04-27 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

VGK: 49.6%

DAL: 50.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.94

DAL: 3.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.47
1	DAL	27	1	1.78
2	VGK	13	0	0.71
2	DAL	20	2	2.03
3	VGK	12	0	0.51
3	DAL	9	0	0.30
4	VGK	7	0	0.20
4	DAL	18	0	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.7