Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2024-05-03 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 0 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 44.2%
DAL: 55.8%
Expected Goals
VGK: 2.88
DAL: 3.27
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | VGK | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.896 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | DAL 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2026-03-10 | DAL 2 - 1 VGK | DAL | DAL |
| 2026-01-29 | VGK 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | VGK |
| 2025-01-28 | VGK 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | VGK |
| 2025-01-24 | DAL 4 - 3 VGK | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 09:54 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:41 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 2.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 0 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.9 - 3.3
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