Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-05-09 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

DAL: 50.3%

COL: 49.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.83

COL: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	0	0.92
1	COL	14	0	0.65
2	DAL	20	2	1.38
2	COL	10	0	0.68
3	DAL	10	2	1.35
3	COL	18	0	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3