Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2024-05-13 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 1 - 5 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 59.2%
DAL: 40.8%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.23
DAL: 2.72
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | COL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.818 | 0.897 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-6
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | COL 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | COL |
| 2025-05-03 | DAL 4 - 2 COL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-01 | COL 7 - 4 DAL | COL | COL |
| 2025-04-28 | DAL 6 - 2 COL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-04-26 | COL 4 - 0 DAL | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:37 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:46 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:24 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:35 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:27 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:10 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 1 - 5 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.2 - 2.7