Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-05-17 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 61.2%

DAL: 38.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.04

DAL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	COL	14	0.67
1	DAL	9	0.55
2	COL	9	0.38
2	DAL	15	0.75
3	COL	11	0.40
3	DAL	14	0.69
4	COL	6	0.36
4	DAL	19	0.91
5	COL	8	0.16
5	DAL	8	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9