Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-10-10 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

BOS: 77.0%

MTL: 23.0%

Expected Goals

BOS: 5.33

MTL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	20	4	83.3%	2.65	1	-1.35
MTL	Cayden Primeau	29	23	6	79.3%	3.22	1	-2.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • BOS at home vs MTL: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	18	1	1.15
1	MTL	11	0	0.68
2	BOS	13	0	1.15
2	MTL	9	0	0.64
3	BOS	10	0	0.92
3	MTL	23	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 8.7

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 6 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 5.3 - 3.4