Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-10-12 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 48.3%
OTT: 51.7%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.57
OTT: 3.12
Total Goals
Median: 7.4
Over 5.5: 75%
Over 6.5: 63%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | MTL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.875 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • MTL at home vs OTT: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | OTT 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | OTT |
| 2026-01-17 | OTT 5 - 6 MTL | MTL | OTT |
| 2025-12-02 | MTL 2 - 5 OTT | OTT | MTL |
| 2025-11-01 | MTL 4 - 3 OTT | MTL | OTT |
| 2025-04-11 | OTT 5 - 2 MTL | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:37 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:03 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:50 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:30 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:43 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.6 - 3.1
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