Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-13 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

VGK: 73.9%

ANA: 26.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.75

ANA: 2.53

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

ANA

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	23	22	1	95.7%	3.04	2	2.04
ANA	J. Reimer	32	29	3	90.6%	5.20	6	2.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs ANA: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	VGK
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-06	VGK 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	1	1.30
1	ANA	15	1	1.16
2	VGK	27	2	1.69
2	ANA	10	0	0.79
3	VGK	14	3	2.21
3	ANA	14	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.5