New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-10-14 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 6 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 61.3%

NYI: 38.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.26

NYI: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 39%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	37	31	6	83.8%	3.93	4	-2.07
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	34	32	2	94.1%	3.53	0	1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	COL
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	0	1.27
1	NYI	19	2	1.56
2	COL	9	0	0.59
2	NYI	14	0	1.11
3	COL	22	0	1.67
3	NYI	11	2	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 6 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.5