Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-10-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

WSH: 55.8%

VGK: 44.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.78

VGK: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	26	24	2	92.3%	2.66	1	0.66
VGK	Adin Hill	22	18	4	81.8%	4.40	7	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WSH at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	WSH
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	1	0.65
1	VGK	11	0	0.80
2	WSH	22	5	2.95
2	VGK	11	1	1.06
3	WSH	5	1	0.80
3	VGK	17	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.8 - 3.2