Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-10-15 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 56.4%

MIN: 43.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.15

MIN: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	27	23	4	85.2%	3.24	3	-0.76
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	28	27	1	96.4%	2.34	0	1.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • STL at home vs MIN: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	STL 6 - 3 MIN	STL	MIN
2026-03-01	MIN 1 - 3 STL	STL	MIN
2025-10-09	STL 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-03-15	MIN 1 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2025-01-07	MIN 6 - 4 STL	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	15	0	0.71
1	MIN	5	1	0.40
2	STL	20	0	1.25
2	MIN	14	0	0.81
3	STL	13	0	0.39
3	MIN	22	2	2.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9