Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-10-16 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 51.2%
BUF: 48.8%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.75
BUF: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | PIT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.855 | 0.871 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | BUF 2 - 5 PIT | PIT | BUF |
| 2025-11-26 | PIT 4 - 2 BUF | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-27 | BUF 7 - 3 PIT | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-01-17 | BUF 2 - 5 PIT | PIT | BUF |
| 2024-10-16 | PIT 6 - 5 BUF | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:33 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 11:01 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 03:08 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 00:43 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 15:20 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 09:12 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:14 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:56 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 10:16 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 03:26 | PIT | Goal |
| 4 | 01:38 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 51.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.7 - 3.0