Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-10-16 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 46.9%

BUF: 53.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.46

BUF: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	33	28	5	84.8%	2.56	1	-2.44
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	43	37	6	86.0%	5.03	5	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	1	0.80
1	BUF	15	1	1.17
2	PIT	13	0	0.85
2	BUF	13	0	0.73
3	PIT	23	4	3.20
3	BUF	15	0	0.65
4	PIT	1	0	0.17
4	BUF	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.4