Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-10-16 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 46.7%
BUF: 53.3%
Expected Goals
PIT: 2.88
BUF: 3.79
Total Goals
Median: 7.6
Over 5.5: 78%
Over 6.5: 65%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | PIT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.855 | 0.871 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | PIT 1 - 5 BUF | BUF | PIT |
| 2026-02-05 | BUF 2 - 5 PIT | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-11-26 | PIT 4 - 2 BUF | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-03-27 | BUF 7 - 3 PIT | BUF | PIT |
| 2025-01-17 | BUF 2 - 5 PIT | PIT | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:43 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 03:08 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 11:01 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 11:33 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 09:12 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 15:20 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 03:26 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:16 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:56 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:14 | PIT | Goal |
| 4 | 01:38 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 2.9 - 3.8
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