Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-10-16 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 46.7%

BUF: 53.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.07

BUF: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	1	0.80
1	BUF	15	1	1.17
2	PIT	13	0	0.85
2	BUF	13	0	0.73
3	PIT	23	4	3.20
3	BUF	15	0	0.65
4	PIT	1	0	0.17
4	BUF	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3