Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-10-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Win Probability

TOR: 65.6%

LAK: 34.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.26

LAK: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

LAK

David Rittich - 16-14-2 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	34	32	2	94.1%	2.82	2	0.82
LAK	David Rittich	26	20	6	76.9%	2.10	1	-3.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs LAK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	LAK 7 - 6 TOR	LAK	LAK
2025-11-13	TOR 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-03-29	LAK 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK
2024-10-16	TOR 6 - 2 LAK	TOR	TOR
2024-01-02	LAK 0 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.93
1	LAK	16	1	1.00
2	TOR	8	0	0.46
2	LAK	20	0	0.59
3	TOR	7	1	0.71
3	LAK	16	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 4.3 - 2.6