Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-10-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 59.6%

BOS: 40.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.51

BOS: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	26	21	5	80.8%	3.89	7	-1.11
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	25	22	3	88.0%	2.57	2	-0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs BOS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-25	BOS 3 - 2 COL	BOS	COL
2025-10-18	COL 4 - 1 BOS	COL	COL
2025-01-25	BOS 3 - 1 COL	BOS	COL
2024-10-16	COL 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	COL
2024-01-18	BOS 5 - 2 COL	BOS	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	9	0	0.79
1	BOS	16	2	1.17
2	COL	8	2	0.65
2	BOS	18	3	1.70
3	COL	23	0	1.13
3	BOS	7	2	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0