New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-10-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 New York Rangers

Win Probability

TOR: 45.5%

NYR: 54.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.71

NYR: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	29	25	4	86.2%	5.00	4	1.00
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	35	34	1	97.1%	4.39	3	3.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	1.18
1	NYR	14	1	1.38
2	TOR	18	1	1.27
2	NYR	14	1	1.06
3	TOR	22	1	1.95
3	NYR	15	2	2.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2