Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

CBJ: 54.1%

TOR: 45.9%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.14

TOR: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 38%

CBJ

Daniil Tarasov - 8-11-3 | 0.908 SV% | 3.18 GAA

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Daniil Tarasov	28	26	2	92.9%	3.26	3	1.26
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	38	32	6	84.2%	3.10	1	-2.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CBJ at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	TOR
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	21	1	1.28
1	TOR	10	0	0.63
2	CBJ	23	0	1.21
2	TOR	21	2	1.66
3	CBJ	10	0	0.61
3	TOR	11	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3