Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-10-24 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

CGY: 27.1%

CAR: 72.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.36

CAR: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	43	39	4	90.7%	4.18	3	0.18
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	32	30	2	93.8%	2.71	2	0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs CAR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	CGY 5 - 4 CAR	CGY	CAR
2025-11-30	CAR 1 - 0 CGY	CAR	CAR
2025-03-02	CAR 2 - 1 CGY	CAR	CAR
2024-10-24	CGY 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-03-10	CAR 7 - 2 CGY	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	9	0	0.65
1	CAR	20	0	0.92
2	CGY	16	0	0.35
2	CAR	25	1	1.51
3	CGY	16	2	1.72
3	CAR	14	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.4 - 3.4