Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-10-29 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 74.4%

ANA: 25.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.53

ANA: 2.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	22	19	3	86.4%	2.16	2	-0.84
ANA	Lukas Dostal	41	40	1	97.6%	4.09	2	3.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs ANA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	ANA 5 - 1 NYI	ANA	NYI
2025-12-11	NYI 5 - 2 ANA	NYI	NYI
2025-03-09	ANA 4 - 1 NYI	ANA	ANA
2024-10-29	NYI 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	NYI
2024-03-10	ANA 1 - 6 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	20	1	1.36
1	ANA	12	0	0.60
2	NYI	17	1	1.18
2	ANA	10	1	0.68
3	NYI	27	0	1.55
3	ANA	11	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.0