Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-11-09 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

FLA: 53.3%

PHI: 46.7%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.41

PHI: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	42	38	4	90.5%	4.95	3	0.95
PHI	Samuel Ersson	36	31	5	86.1%	4.68	2	-0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • FLA at home vs PHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	FLA 2 - 4 PHI	PHI	FLA
2025-10-13	PHI 5 - 2 FLA	PHI	FLA
2025-10-09	FLA 2 - 1 PHI	FLA	FLA
2025-01-13	PHI 4 - 3 FLA	PHI	FLA
2024-12-05	PHI 5 - 7 FLA	FLA	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	20	0	0.80
1	PHI	15	1	1.18
2	FLA	14	0	1.01
2	PHI	16	1	1.12
3	FLA	14	0	0.54
3	PHI	9	0	0.50
4	FLA	4	0	0.46
4	PHI	7	0	0.91
5	FLA	5	2	1.87
5	PHI	5	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1