Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-11 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 7 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 59.6%

MTL: 40.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.93

MTL: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	23	16	7	69.6%	4.47	4	-2.53
MTL	Cayden Primeau	18	13	5	72.2%	1.75	0	-3.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 32% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.67
1	MTL	9	0	0.72
2	BUF	10	0	0.52
2	MTL	13	1	1.10
3	BUF	10	0	0.57
3	MTL	10	3	2.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 7 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 3.6