Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-11-23 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 55.5%
DAL: 44.5%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.65
DAL: 3.16
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | TBL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.951 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs DAL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | DAL 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | DAL |
| 2025-10-30 | TBL 2 - 1 DAL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-20 | DAL 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | DAL |
| 2024-11-23 | TBL 2 - 4 DAL | DAL | TBL |
| 2023-12-04 | TBL 4 - 0 DAL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:09 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 06:05 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 08:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 06:55 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:53 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.7 - 3.2