Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-11-30 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 48.9%

MTL: 51.1%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.27

MTL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	28	25	3	89.3%	2.95	1	-0.05
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	28	24	4	85.7%	2.64	1	-1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • NYR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	0	0.81
1	MTL	9	1	0.90
2	NYR	20	0	1.01
2	MTL	22	0	1.26
3	NYR	11	1	0.82
3	MTL	14	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2