Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-11-30 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 53.0%

PHI: 47.0%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.13

PHI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	28	3	90.3%	4.26	3	1.26
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	27	25	2	92.6%	2.94	3	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs PHI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	6	0	0.37
1	PHI	14	0	0.52
2	STL	18	1	1.21
2	PHI	23	1	1.62
3	STL	18	2	1.36
3	PHI	9	2	1.92
4	STL	0	0	0.00
4	PHI	1	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2